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America M. W vs Sao Paulo W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Regular Season - 8 ·Monday, April 27, 2026, 21:00

America M. W

PPG 0.33 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Sao Paulo W

PPG 2.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 72.2% vs bookmaker-implied 87.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-111.7%0-217.4%0-317.2%0-4+26.4%1 1-01.1%1-13.1%1-24.6%1-34.6%1-4+7.0%2 2-00.1%2-10.4%2-20.6%2-30.6%2-4+0.9%3 3-00.0%3-10.0%3-20.1%3-30.1%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.0%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 4.5% 4.8% 21.00 -5.5%

Draw 23.3% 17.4% 5.75 +34.0%

Away win 72.2% 87.7% 1.14 -17.7%

Over 2.5 59.0% 65.4% 1.53 -9.7%

Over 3.5 40.4% 43.5% 2.30 -7.1%

BTTS 39.6% 40.8% 2.45 -3.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -30.5%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 4 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)0.3 xG (away)3.0 BTTS prob39.6%

A 72% / xG 0.3-3.0 / O2.5 59% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 17.4%

#2 0–3 17.2%

#3 0–4 12.7%

#4 0–1 11.7%

#5 0–5 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

America M. W0.3

Sao Paulo W3.0

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 40.4%

Form & verdict PPG

AMERICA M. W · PPG 0.33

SAO PAULO W · PPG 2.33

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.33) vs Home POOR (0.33)

Win probability 1X2

America M. W (H) 4.5%

ODDS 21.00 · IMPLIED 4.8% EV -5.5%

Draw 23.3%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV +34.0%

Sao Paulo W (A) 72.2%

ODDS 1.14 · IMPLIED 87.7% EV -17.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

America M. W face Sao Paulo W in Brazil - Brasileiro Women on Monday, April 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives America M. W a 5% chance, the draw 23% and Sao Paulo W 72%, so Sao Paulo W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.3 for America M. W and 3.0 for Sao Paulo W (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, America M. W are averaging 0.33 points per game versus 2.33 for Sao Paulo W. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +34.0%. This match finished 0-0.

America M. W vs Sao Paulo W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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