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Piast Gliwice vs Arka Gdynia Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Regular Season - 30 ·Monday, April 27, 2026, 17:00

Piast Gliwice

PPG 1.29 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Arka Gdynia

PPG 0.36 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.0% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a clear edge.

+18.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-14.6%0-22.0%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.0%1-19.5%1-24.1%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.4%2-19.8%2-24.2%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.9%3-16.8%3-22.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-06.6%4+-15.7%4+-22.4%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.9% 54.3% 1.84 -0.8%

Draw 25.9% 29.0% 3.45 -10.6%

Away win 20.3% 23.8% 4.20 -14.7%

Over 2.5 59.0% 50.0% 2.00 +18.0%

Over 3.5 33.8% 28.6% 3.50 +18.3%

BTTS 52.6% 54.6% 1.83 -3.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -15.6%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.6%

H 54% / xG 2.1-0.9 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.4%

#2 1–1 9.5%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 1–0 11.0%

#5 3–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Piast Gliwice2.1

Arka Gdynia0.9

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 33.8%

Form & verdict PPG

PIAST GLIWICE · PPG 1.29

ARKA GDYNIA · PPG 0.36

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.29) vs P(Home)=53.9%

Win probability 1X2

Piast Gliwice (H) 53.9%

ODDS 1.84 · IMPLIED 54.3% EV -0.8%

Draw 25.9%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -10.6%

Arka Gdynia (A) 20.3%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -14.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Piast Gliwice face Arka Gdynia in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Monday, April 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Piast Gliwice a 54% chance, the draw 26% and Arka Gdynia 20%, so Piast Gliwice are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Piast Gliwice and 0.9 for Arka Gdynia (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Piast Gliwice are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 0.36 for Arka Gdynia. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +18.3%. This match finished 4-1.

Piast Gliwice vs Arka Gdynia Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

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