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Piast Gliwice vs Arka Gdynia Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Poland - Ekstraklasa logo Poland flag Poland - Ekstraklasa Regular Season - 30 Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach· Gliwice Monday, April 27, 2026 17:00
Piast Gliwice logo Piast Gliwice PPG 1.29
4-1 MISS
Arka Gdynia logo Arka Gdynia PPG 0.36
Over3.5· +18.3% ✓ SOLID - Strong home form
80% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Piast Gliwice face Arka Gdynia in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Monday, April 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Piast Gliwice a 54% chance, the draw 26% and Arka Gdynia 20%, so Piast Gliwice are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Piast Gliwice and 0.9 for Arka Gdynia (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Piast Gliwice are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 0.36 for Arka Gdynia. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +18.3%. This match finished 4-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 53.9%
Odds: 1.84 EV: -0.8%
Draw 25.9%
Odds: 3.45 EV: -10.6%
Away 20.3%
Odds: 4.20 EV: -14.7%
Model lean: Over 2.5
Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 59.0% Odds: 2.00 +18.0%
Over 3.5 33.8% Odds: 3.50 +18.3%
BTTS 52.6% Odds: 1.83 -3.7%
O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-0
2nd 1-1
3rd 2-1
4th 1-0
5th 3-0

Expected Goals (xG)

Piast Gliwice
2.07
Arka Gdynia
0.86

Model Suggestion

Over 2.5 +18.0% ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market: Over 2.5.
Raw EV leader: Over3.5(+18.3%)

League Track Record

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%
O2.5/Under 60%
BTTS/No 55%
Score Hit 47%
ROI -16.8%
Bet Hit 44% (18 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Strong home form
80%
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.29) vs P(Home)=53.9%

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