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Zalgiris vs Banga Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Regular Season - 9 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 17:00

Zalgiris

PPG 1.20 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Banga

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 54.3% vs bookmaker-implied 17.2% — a clear edge.

+214.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.5%0-119.3%0-212.8%0-35.6%0-4+2.5%1 1-08.8%1-111.6%1-27.7%1-33.4%1-4+1.5%2 2-02.6%2-13.5%2-22.3%2-31.0%2-4+0.5%3 3-00.5%3-10.7%3-20.5%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 17.0% 65.4% 1.53 -74.0%

Draw 28.7% 27.0% 3.70 +6.2%

Away win 54.3% 17.2% 5.80 +214.9%

Over 2.5 30.4% 51.3% 1.95 -40.7%

Over 3.5 13.0% 29.0% 3.45 -55.1%

BTTS 33.3% 51.3% 1.95 -35.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -13.9%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob33.3%

A 54% / xG 0.6-1.3 / U2.5 30% / NoBTTS 33%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 19.3%

#2 0–0 14.5%

#3 0–2 12.8%

#4 1–1✓ 11.6%

#5 1–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zalgiris0.6

Banga1.3

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 30.4% · O3.5 PROB 13.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ZALGIRIS · PPG 1.20

BANGA · PPG 1.00

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.20), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Zalgiris (H) 17.0%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -74.0%

Draw 28.7%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +6.2%

Banga (A) 54.3%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV +214.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Zalgiris face Banga in Lithuania - A Lyga on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zalgiris a 17% chance, the draw 29% and Banga 54%, so Banga are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Zalgiris and 1.3 for Banga (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 30% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 33% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zalgiris are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.00 for Banga. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +214.9%. This match finished 1-1.

Zalgiris vs Banga Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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