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A. Tucuman vs Banfield Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Apertura · Matchday 16 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 23:00

A. Tucuman

PPG 1.43 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWDD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Banfield

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWLL

// Model verdict

BTTS 51% chance

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-16.3%0-22.5%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.2%1-111.0%1-24.2%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.3%2-19.5%2-23.7%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.0%3-15.4%3-22.1%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-13.5%4+-21.3%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.7% 47.2% 2.12 +5.4%

Draw 28.5% 32.8% 3.05 -13.1%

Away win 21.8% 27.0% 3.70 -19.3%

Over 2.5 50.0% 41.7% 2.40 +20.0%

Over 3.5 24.2% 22.2% 4.50 +8.9%

BTTS 52.3% 50.0% 2.00 +4.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 137 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -5.7%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.3%

H 50% / xG 1.7-0.8 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.0%

#2 1–0 14.2%

#3 2–0 12.3%

#4 0–0 8.2%

#5 2–1 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

A. Tucuman1.7

Banfield0.8

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 24.2%

Form & verdict PPG

A. TUCUMAN · PPG 1.43

BANFIELD · PPG 0.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

51%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

A. Tucuman (H) 49.7%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV +5.4%

Draw 28.5%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -13.1%

Banfield (A) 21.8%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -19.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

A. Tucuman face Banfield in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives A. Tucuman a 50% chance, the draw 28% and Banfield 22%, so A. Tucuman are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for A. Tucuman and 0.8 for Banfield (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, A. Tucuman are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 0.00 for Banfield. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +20.0%. This match finished 1-1.

A. Tucuman vs Banfield Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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