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Wanderers vs Penarol Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Apertura - 13 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 22:00

Wanderers

PPG 1.33 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Penarol

PPG 2.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-112.5%0-210.5%0-35.8%0-4+3.6%1 1-06.9%1-111.5%1-29.6%1-35.4%1-4+3.3%2 2-03.2%2-15.3%2-24.4%2-32.5%2-4+1.5%3 3-01.0%3-11.6%3-21.4%3-30.8%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.5%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.1% 18.2% 5.50 +49.0%

Draw 28.0% 28.6% 3.50 -2.0%

Away win 44.9% 62.1% 1.61 -27.7%

Over 2.5 50.5% 47.6% 2.10 +6.0%

Over 3.5 26.3% 27.0% 3.70 -2.7%

BTTS 52.6% 51.3% 1.95 +2.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 7.4%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob52.6%

A 45% / xG 0.9-1.7 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 0–1 12.5%

#3 0–2 10.5%

#4 1–2 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wanderers0.9

Penarol1.7

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 26.3%

Form & verdict PPG

WANDERERS · PPG 1.33

PENAROL · PPG 2.40

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.40) vs Home AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Wanderers (H) 27.1%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +49.0%

Draw 28.0%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -2.0%

Penarol (A) 44.9%

ODDS 1.61 · IMPLIED 62.1% EV -27.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Wanderers face Penarol in Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wanderers a 27% chance, the draw 28% and Penarol 45%, so Penarol are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Wanderers and 1.7 for Penarol (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wanderers are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 2.40 for Penarol. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +49.0%. This match finished 1-0.

Wanderers vs Penarol Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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