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Everton vs Cobresal Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Matchday 11 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 21:30

Everton

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDWW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Cobresal

PPG 0.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLDW

// Model verdict

BTTS 55% chance

Model probability 50.0% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.0%0-19.7%0-24.3%0-31.3%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.6%1-112.8%1-25.7%1-31.7%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.7%2-18.5%2-23.8%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.3%3-13.8%3-21.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.7%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.0% 57.1% 1.75 -21.3%

Draw 30.2% 28.2% 3.55 +7.2%

Away win 24.7% 23.8% 4.20 +3.7%

Over 2.5 44.4% 54.1% 1.85 -17.9%

Over 3.5 18.3% 31.3% 3.20 -41.4%

BTTS 50.0% 57.1% 1.75 -12.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 81 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 0.5%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob50.0%

H 45% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 44% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 11.0%

#3 1–0 14.6%

#4 2–0 9.7%

#5 2–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Everton1.3

Cobresal0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.4% · O3.5 PROB 18.3%

Form & verdict PPG

EVERTON · PPG 1.00

COBRESAL · PPG 0.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

55%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.00) > Away POOR (0.20)

Win probability 1X2

Everton (H) 45.0%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -21.3%

Draw 30.2%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +7.2%

Cobresal (A) 24.7%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +3.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Everton face Cobresal in Chile - Primera División on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Everton a 45% chance, the draw 30% and Cobresal 25%, so Everton are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Everton and 0.9 for Cobresal (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Everton are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.20 for Cobresal. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +7.2%. This match finished 3-1.

Everton vs Cobresal Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Chile - Primera División Predictions