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U. Concepcion vs Colo-Colo Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Regular Season - 11 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 19:00

U. Concepcion

PPG 2.40 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Colo-Colo

PPG 2.25 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-020.8%0-121.8%0-211.4%0-34.0%0-4+1.3%1 1-010.9%1-111.4%1-26.0%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-02.8%2-13.0%2-21.6%2-30.5%2-4+0.2%3 3-00.5%3-10.5%3-20.3%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.4% 24.4% 4.10 -4.1%

Draw 34.4% 29.4% 3.40 +17.0%

Away win 42.2% 54.9% 1.82 -23.2%

Over 2.5 35.9% 47.6% 2.10 -24.6%

Over 3.5 7.5% 26.0% 3.85 -71.1%

BTTS 39.6% 52.6% 1.90 -24.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 27%

ROI 10.7%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)0.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob39.6%

A 42% / xG 0.5-1.0 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 20.8%

#2 0–1 21.8%

#3 1–1 11.4%

#4 0–2 11.4%

#5 1–0 10.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

U. Concepcion0.5

Colo-Colo1.0

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.9% · O3.5 PROB 7.5%

Form & verdict PPG

U. CONCEPCION · PPG 2.40

COLO-COLO · PPG 2.25

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.40), Away EXCELLENT (2.25)

Win probability 1X2

U. Concepcion (H) 23.4%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -4.1%

Draw 34.4%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +17.0%

Colo-Colo (A) 42.2%

ODDS 1.82 · IMPLIED 54.9% EV -23.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

U. Concepcion face Colo-Colo in Chile - Primera División on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives U. Concepcion a 23% chance, the draw 34% and Colo-Colo 42%, so Colo-Colo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.5 for U. Concepcion and 1.0 for Colo-Colo (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, U. Concepcion are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 2.25 for Colo-Colo. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +17.0%. This match finished 1-2.

U. Concepcion vs Colo-Colo Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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