Today / Cham vs Neumarkt

Cham vs Neumarkt Prediction

Bayern Nord - 30 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 17:00

Cham

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Neumarkt

PPG 1.69 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away GOOD (1.69)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-17.4%0-25.7%0-32.9%0-4+1.6%1 1-07.2%1-111.1%1-28.5%1-34.4%1-4+2.4%2 2-05.4%2-18.3%2-26.4%2-33.3%2-4+1.8%3 3-02.7%3-14.1%3-23.2%3-31.6%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.1%4+-21.6%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.0% — — —

Draw 24.1% — — —

Away win 38.9% — — —

Over 2.5 58.4% — — —

Over 3.5 36.0% — — —

BTTS 60.9% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob60.9%

A 39% / xG 1.5-1.5 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 1–2 8.5%

#3 2–1 8.3%

#4 0–1 7.4%

#5 1–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cham1.5

Neumarkt1.5

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.4% · O3.5 PROB 36.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CHAM · PPG 2.00

NEUMARKT · PPG 1.69

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away GOOD (1.69)

Win probability 1X2

Cham (H) 37.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Neumarkt (A) 38.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Cham face Neumarkt on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cham a 37% chance, the draw 24% and Neumarkt 39%, so Neumarkt are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Cham and 1.5 for Neumarkt (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cham are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.69 for Neumarkt. This match finished 2-0.

Cham vs Neumarkt Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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