Marseille vs Nice Prediction— France - Ligue 1

France - Ligue 1 Regular Season - 31 Orange Vélodrome· Marseille Sunday, April 26, 2026 18:45

Marseille PPG 2.20

1-1 MISS

Nice PPG 0.73

Over3.5· +37.5% ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Marseille face Nice in France - Ligue 1 on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Marseille a 70% chance, the draw 21% and Nice 9%, so Marseille are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.5 for Marseille and 1.0 for Nice (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Marseille are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 0.73 for Nice. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +37.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 70.0%

Odds: 1.47 EV: +2.9%

Draw 20.6%

Odds: 4.60 EV: -5.2%

Away 9.4%

Odds: 5.80 EV: -45.5%

Model lean: Home

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 68.1% Odds: 1.45 -1.3%

Over 3.5 65.5% Odds: 2.10 +37.5%

BTTS 58.5% Odds: 1.53 -10.5%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 3-0 ✘

2nd 3-1 ✘

3rd 4-0 ✘

4th 4-1 ✘

5th 2-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Marseille

3.49

Nice

0.99

Model SuggestionHome +2.9% ROI TRACKS: Home
Tracked ROI market: Home. 
Raw EV leader: Over3.5(+37.5%)

League Track Record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5/Under 62%

BTTS/No 55%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -18.0%

Bet Hit 50% (16 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.20), Away POOR (0.73) - Strong consensus