Today / France - Ligue 1 / Marseille vs Nice

Marseille vs Nice Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Regular Season - 31 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 18:45

Marseille

PPG 2.20 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Nice

PPG 0.73 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 70.0% vs bookmaker-implied 68.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.1%0-11.1%0-20.6%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-03.9%1-13.9%1-21.9%1-30.6%1-4+0.2%2 2-06.9%2-16.8%2-23.4%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.0%3-17.9%3-23.9%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-017.1%4+-117.0%4+-28.4%4+-32.8%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 70.0% 68.0% 1.47 +2.9%

Draw 20.6% 21.7% 4.60 -5.2%

Away win 9.4% 17.2% 5.80 -45.5%

Over 2.5 68.1% 69.0% 1.45 -1.3%

Over 3.5 65.5% 47.6% 2.10 +37.5%

BTTS 58.5% 65.4% 1.53 -10.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -5.5%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 69%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)3.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob58.5%

H 70% / xG 3.5-1.0 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 8.0%

#2 3–1 7.9%

#3 4–0 7.0%

#4 4–1 6.9%

#5 2–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Marseille3.5

Nice1.0

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.1% · O3.5 PROB 65.5%

Form & verdict PPG

MARSEILLE · PPG 2.20

NICE · PPG 0.73

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.20), Away POOR (0.73) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Marseille (H) 70.0%

ODDS 1.47 · IMPLIED 68.0% EV +2.9%

Draw 20.6%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -5.2%

Nice (A) 9.4%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV -45.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Marseille face Nice in France - Ligue 1 on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Marseille a 70% chance, the draw 21% and Nice 9%, so Marseille are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.5 for Marseille and 1.0 for Nice (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Marseille are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 0.73 for Nice. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +37.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Marseille vs Nice Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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