Today / ATSV Erlangen vs Grossschwarz.

ATSV Erlangen vs Grossschwarz. Prediction

Bayern Nord - 30 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 17:00

ATSV Erlangen

PPG 1.69 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Grossschwarz.

PPG 0.77 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.69) vs P(Home)=39.5%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-18.8%0-25.7%0-32.4%0-4+1.0%1 1-09.5%1-112.3%1-27.9%1-33.4%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.6%2-18.6%2-25.5%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-03.1%3-14.0%3-22.6%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.9%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.5% — — —

Draw 25.8% — — —

Away win 34.7% — — —

Over 2.5 50.5% — — —

Over 3.5 28.4% — — —

BTTS 54.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.7%

H 40% / xG 1.4-1.3 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 1–0 9.5%

#3 0–1 8.8%

#4 2–1✓ 8.6%

#5 1–2 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

ATSV Erlangen1.4

Grossschwarz.1.3

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ATSV ERLANGEN · PPG 1.69

GROSSSCHWARZ. · PPG 0.77

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.69) vs P(Home)=39.5%

Win probability 1X2

ATSV Erlangen (H) 39.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Grossschwarz. (A) 34.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

ATSV Erlangen face Grossschwarz. on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives ATSV Erlangen a 40% chance, the draw 26% and Grossschwarz. 35%, so ATSV Erlangen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for ATSV Erlangen and 1.3 for Grossschwarz. (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, ATSV Erlangen are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 0.77 for Grossschwarz.. This match finished 2-1.

ATSV Erlangen vs Grossschwarz. Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

More Football Predictions