Today / T. Wilhelmsburg vs Suderelbe

T. Wilhelmsburg vs Suderelbe Prediction

Friday, April 17, 2026

T. Wilhelmsburg

PPG 0.83 · HOME

UPCOMING

Suderelbe

PPG 1.23 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.1%0-13.6%0-25.6%0-35.8%0-4+9.8%1 1-01.5%1-14.8%1-27.5%1-37.8%1-4+13.3%2 2-01.0%2-13.3%2-25.1%2-35.3%2-4+9.0%3 3-00.5%3-11.5%3-22.3%3-32.4%3-4+4.0%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.7%4+-21.0%4+-31.1%4+-4+1.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.3% — — —

Draw 14.2% — — —

Away win 72.5% — — —

Over 2.5 82.3% — — —

Over 3.5 65.3% — — —

BTTS 70.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 77%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)3.1 BTTS prob70.8%

A 72% / xG 1.4-3.1 / O2.5 82% / BTTS 71%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–3 7.8%

#2 1–2 7.5%

#3 1–4 6.1%

#4 0–3 5.8%

#5 0–2 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

T. Wilhelmsburg1.4

Suderelbe3.1

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 82.3% · O3.5 PROB 65.3%

Form & verdict PPG

T. WILHELMSBURG · PPG 0.83

SUDERELBE · PPG 1.23

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.83) vs Away AVERAGE (1.23)

Win probability 1X2

T. Wilhelmsburg (H) 13.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 14.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Suderelbe (A) 72.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

T. Wilhelmsburg face Suderelbe on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives T. Wilhelmsburg a 13% chance, the draw 14% and Suderelbe 73%, so Suderelbe are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for T. Wilhelmsburg and 3.1 for Suderelbe (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-3. There is a 82% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 71% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, T. Wilhelmsburg are averaging 0.83 points per game versus 1.23 for Suderelbe.

T. Wilhelmsburg vs Suderelbe Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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