Today / Bosnia - Premijer Liga / Posusje vs FK Sarajevo

Posusje vs FK Sarajevo Prediction— Bosnia - Premijer Liga

Regular Season - 31 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 17:45

Posusje

PPG 1.33 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

FK Sarajevo

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.2%0-112.3%0-25.7%0-31.8%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.4%1-113.4%1-26.3%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-07.9%2-17.4%2-23.4%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.9%3-12.7%3-21.2%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-10.9%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.8% 31.3% 3.20 +21.0%

Draw 32.7% 38.2% 2.62 -14.3%

Away win 29.5% 42.0% 2.38 -29.8%

Over 2.5 44.4% — — —

Over 3.5 14.8% — — —

BTTS 49.5% 47.6% 2.10 +4.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -11.0%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.5%

D 33% / xG 1.1-0.9 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 13.2%

#3 1–0 14.4%

#4 0–1✓ 12.3%

#5 2–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Posusje1.1

FK Sarajevo0.9

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.4% · O3.5 PROB 14.8%

Form & verdict PPG

POSUSJE · PPG 1.33

FK SARAJEVO · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.33) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Posusje (H) 37.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +21.0%

Draw 32.7%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -14.3%

FK Sarajevo (A) 29.5%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -29.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Posusje face FK Sarajevo in Bosnia - Premijer Liga on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Posusje a 38% chance, the draw 33% and FK Sarajevo 30%, so Posusje are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Posusje and 0.9 for FK Sarajevo (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Posusje are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.00 for FK Sarajevo. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +21.0%. This match finished 0-1.

Posusje vs FK Sarajevo Prediction— Bosnia - Premijer Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Bosnia - Premijer Liga Predictions