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Posusje vs FK Sarajevo Prediction— Bosnia - Premijer Liga

Bosnia - Premijer Liga logo Bosnia flag Bosnia - Premijer Liga Regular Season - 31 Stadion Mokri Dolac Sunday, April 26, 2026 17:45
Posusje logo Posusje PPG 1.33
0-1 HIT CS4
FK Sarajevo logo FK Sarajevo PPG 1.00
Home· +21.0% ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage
75% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Posusje face FK Sarajevo in Bosnia - Premijer Liga on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Posusje a 38% chance, the draw 33% and FK Sarajevo 30%, so Posusje are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Posusje and 0.9 for FK Sarajevo (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Posusje are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.00 for FK Sarajevo. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +21.0%. This match finished 0-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 37.8%
Odds: 3.20 EV: +21.0%
Draw 32.7%
Odds: 2.62 EV: -14.3%
Away 29.5%
Odds: 2.38 EV: -29.8%
Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 44.4% Odds: —
Over 3.5 14.8% Odds: —
BTTS 49.5% Odds: 2.10 +4.0%
O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1
2nd 0-0
3rd 1-0
4th 0-1
5th 2-0

Expected Goals (xG)

Posusje
1.09
FK Sarajevo
0.93

Model Suggestion

No Bet NO VALUE BET
Model lean: No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.

League Track Record

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%
O2.5/Under 68%
BTTS/No 61%
Score Hit 57%
ROI -19.3%
Bet Hit 50% (8 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage
75%
MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.33) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

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