Today / Germany - 3. Liga / Havelse vs VfB Stuttgart B

Havelse vs VfB Stuttgart B Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Matchday 35 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 17:30

Havelse

PPG 1.12 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLWL

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

VfB Stuttgart B

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 65% chance

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 60.5% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-14.6%0-24.4%0-32.9%0-4+2.1%1 1-04.3%1-18.3%1-28.0%1-35.2%1-4+3.9%2 2-03.9%2-17.5%2-27.2%2-34.7%2-4+3.5%3 3-02.3%3-14.5%3-24.4%3-32.8%3-4+2.1%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-13.1%4+-23.0%4+-31.9%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.2% 29.0% 3.45 +24.9%

Draw 28.6% 26.0% 3.85 +10.1%

Away win 35.2% 52.4% 1.91 -32.8%

Over 2.5 60.5% 67.6% 1.48 -10.5%

Over 3.5 51.4% 46.5% 2.15 +10.5%

BTTS 58.5% 70.4% 1.42 -16.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 16.0%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob58.5%

D 29% / xG 1.8-1.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.3%

#2 1–2 8.0%

#3 2–1 7.5%

#4 2–2 7.2%

#5 1–3 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Havelse1.8

VfB Stuttgart B1.9

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.5% · O3.5 PROB 51.4%

Form & verdict PPG

HAVELSE · PPG 1.12

VFB STUTTGART B · PPG 0.88

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

65%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.12), Away POOR (0.88)

Win probability 1X2

Havelse (H) 36.2%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +24.9%

Draw 28.6%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +10.1%

VfB Stuttgart B (A) 35.2%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -32.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Havelse face VfB Stuttgart B in Germany - 3. Liga on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Havelse a 36% chance, the draw 29% and VfB Stuttgart B 35%, so Havelse are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Havelse and 1.9 for VfB Stuttgart B (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Havelse are averaging 1.12 points per game versus 0.88 for VfB Stuttgart B. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +24.9%. This match finished 3-2.

Havelse vs VfB Stuttgart B Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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