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Siroki Brijeg vs Zrinjski Mostar Prediction— Bosnia - Premijer Liga

Regular Season - 31 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 17:30

Siroki Brijeg

PPG 1.60 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Zrinjski Mostar

PPG 2.07 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.7%0-115.1%0-28.4%0-33.1%0-4+1.1%1 1-012.1%1-113.4%1-27.4%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-05.3%2-15.9%2-23.3%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-01.6%3-11.7%3-21.0%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.5%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.3% 21.7% 4.60 +44.0%

Draw 34.1% 30.8% 3.25 +10.8%

Away win 34.6% 57.8% 1.73 -40.1%

Over 2.5 38.2% 46.5% 2.15 -17.9%

Over 3.5 14.1% 25.6% 3.90 -45.0%

BTTS 49.5% 51.3% 1.95 -3.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -11.0%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob49.5%

D 34% / xG 0.9-1.1 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.7%

#2 1–1 13.4%

#3 0–1 15.1%

#4 1–0 12.1%

#5 0–2 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Siroki Brijeg0.9

Zrinjski Mostar1.1

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.2% · O3.5 PROB 14.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SIROKI BRIJEG · PPG 1.60

ZRINJSKI MOSTAR · PPG 2.07

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.60) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.07)

Win probability 1X2

Siroki Brijeg (H) 31.3%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +44.0%

Draw 34.1%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +10.8%

Zrinjski Mostar (A) 34.6%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -40.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Siroki Brijeg face Zrinjski Mostar in Bosnia - Premijer Liga on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Siroki Brijeg a 31% chance, the draw 34% and Zrinjski Mostar 35%, so Zrinjski Mostar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Siroki Brijeg and 1.1 for Zrinjski Mostar (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Siroki Brijeg are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 2.07 for Zrinjski Mostar. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +44.0%. This match finished 2-1.

Siroki Brijeg vs Zrinjski Mostar Prediction— Bosnia - Premijer Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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