Today / Nottingen vs Pforzheim

Nottingen vs Pforzheim Prediction

Baden-Württemberg - 28 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 17:00

Nottingen logo
Nottingen
PPG 1.77 · HOME
0 – 2
FULL TIME
✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5
Pforzheim logo
Pforzheim
PPG 1.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.9%0-11.9%0-21.8%0-31.2%0-4+1.0%1 1-02.5%1-15.0%1-25.0%1-33.3%1-4+2.6%2 2-03.4%2-16.7%2-26.7%2-34.4%2-4+3.4%3 3-03.0%3-16.0%3-26.0%3-33.9%3-4+3.1%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-17.7%4+-27.7%4+-35.1%4+-4+4.0%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 53.3%
Draw 18.2%
Away win 28.5%
Over 2.5 84.5%
Over 3.5 68.5%
BTTS 80.4%
Home O1.5
Away O1.5

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 66%CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 0-2
xG (home)2.7 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob80.4%

H 53% / xG 2.7-2.0 / O2.5 84% / BTTS 80%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 6.7%
#2 2–2 6.7%
#3 3–1 6.0%
#4 3–2 6.0%
#5 1–1 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nottingen2.7
Pforzheim2.0

COMBINED 4.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 84.5% · O3.5 PROB 68.5%

Form & verdict PPG

NOTTINGEN · PPG 1.77

PFORZHEIM · PPG 1.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value
52%
MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.77) > Away AVERAGE (1.38)

Win probability 1X2

Nottingen (H) 53.3%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 18.2%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Pforzheim (A) 28.5%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Nottingen face Pforzheim on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nottingen a 53% chance, the draw 18% and Pforzheim 28%, so Nottingen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Nottingen and 2.0 for Pforzheim (4.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 85% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 80% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nottingen are averaging 1.77 points per game versus 1.38 for Pforzheim. This match finished 0-2.

PredictVantage

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