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Bekescsaba vs Karcag SE Prediction— Hungary - NB II

Regular Season - 27 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 17:00

Bekescsaba

PPG 1.08 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Karcag SE

PPG 0.92 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.8%0-111.0%0-25.6%0-31.9%0-4+0.6%1 1-013.1%1-113.3%1-26.8%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-07.9%2-18.0%2-24.1%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.2%3-13.2%3-21.6%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.3%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.8% 57.1% 1.75 -33.9%

Draw 32.7% 31.3% 3.20 +4.6%

Away win 29.5% 25.0% 4.00 +18.0%

Over 2.5 44.4% — — —

Over 3.5 18.6% — — —

BTTS 52.6% 57.1% 1.75 -8.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -29.1%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.6%

D 33% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 44% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0✓ 10.8%

#3 1–0 13.1%

#4 0–1 11.0%

#5 2–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bekescsaba1.2

Karcag SE1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.4% · O3.5 PROB 18.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BEKESCSABA · PPG 1.08

KARCAG SE · PPG 0.92

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.08), Away POOR (0.92)

Win probability 1X2

Bekescsaba (H) 37.8%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -33.9%

Draw 32.7%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +4.6%

Karcag SE (A) 29.5%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +18.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bekescsaba face Karcag SE in Hungary - NB II on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bekescsaba a 38% chance, the draw 33% and Karcag SE 30%, so Bekescsaba are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Bekescsaba and 1.0 for Karcag SE (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bekescsaba are averaging 1.08 points per game versus 0.92 for Karcag SE. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +18.0%. This match finished 0-0.

Bekescsaba vs Karcag SE Prediction— Hungary - NB II

Match Preview & Prediction

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