Today / Chile - Primera División / La Serena vs Huachipato
La Serena vs Huachipato Prediction— Chile - Primera División
Regular Season - 11 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 16:30
// Model verdict
Over 2.5
Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 59.9% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a clear edge.
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
League track record ↗
Based on 33 resolved predictions
Correct score prediction
H 45% / xG 1.9-1.5 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 58%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.9% · O3.5 PROB 43.7%
Form & verdict
LA SERENA · PPG 1.60
HUACHIPATO · PPG 1.20
Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.60) > Away AVERAGE (1.20)
Win probability
Match Preview & Prediction
La Serena face Huachipato in Chile - Primera División on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives La Serena a 45% chance, the draw 28% and Huachipato 27%, so La Serena are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for La Serena and 1.5 for Huachipato (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, La Serena are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.20 for Huachipato. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +61.7%. This match finished 0-0.