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Lech Poznan vs Legia Warsaw Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Regular Season - 30 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 15:30

Lech Poznan

PPG 1.64 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Legia Warsaw

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 59.0% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-14.8%0-22.8%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-08.2%1-19.7%1-25.7%1-32.2%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.3%2-19.8%2-25.8%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.7%3-16.6%3-23.9%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-04.6%4+-15.4%4+-23.2%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.5% 50.8% 1.97 -8.4%

Draw 28.4% 27.0% 3.70 +5.1%

Away win 25.1% 29.0% 3.45 -13.4%

Over 2.5 59.0% 58.8% 1.70 +0.3%

Over 3.5 39.9% 35.7% 2.80 +11.7%

BTTS 58.5% 61.7% 1.62 -5.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -15.6%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob58.5%

H 46% / xG 2.0-1.2 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.3%

#4 1–0 8.2%

#5 3–1 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lech Poznan2.0

Legia Warsaw1.2

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 39.9%

Form & verdict PPG

LECH POZNAN · PPG 1.64

LEGIA WARSAW · PPG 0.93

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.64) > Away POOR (0.93)

Win probability 1X2

Lech Poznan (H) 46.5%

ODDS 1.97 · IMPLIED 50.8% EV -8.4%

Draw 28.4%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +5.1%

Legia Warsaw (A) 25.1%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -13.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lech Poznan face Legia Warsaw in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lech Poznan a 47% chance, the draw 28% and Legia Warsaw 25%, so Lech Poznan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Lech Poznan and 1.2 for Legia Warsaw (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lech Poznan are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 0.93 for Legia Warsaw. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +11.7%. This match finished 4-0.

Lech Poznan vs Legia Warsaw Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

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