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Rennes vs Nantes Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Regular Season - 31 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 15:15

Rennes

PPG 1.87 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Nantes

PPG 0.73 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 62.7% vs bookmaker-implied 70.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-12.8%0-21.0%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.9%1-17.1%1-22.5%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.5%2-18.9%2-23.2%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.5%3-17.5%3-22.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-012.1%4+-18.7%4+-23.1%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.7% 70.9% 1.41 -11.6%

Draw 22.1% 21.5% 4.65 +2.8%

Away win 15.2% 14.3% 7.00 +6.4%

Over 2.5 59.0% 60.6% 1.65 -2.6%

Over 3.5 40.7% 38.5% 2.60 +5.8%

BTTS 52.6% 55.6% 1.80 -5.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -5.5%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob52.6%

H 63% / xG 2.5-0.7 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.5%

#2 3–0 10.5%

#3 2–1✓ 8.9%

#4 1–0 9.9%

#5 1–1 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rennes2.5

Nantes0.7

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 40.7%

Form & verdict PPG

RENNES · PPG 1.87

NANTES · PPG 0.73

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.87) vs P(Home)=62.7%

Win probability 1X2

Rennes (H) 62.7%

ODDS 1.41 · IMPLIED 70.9% EV -11.6%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 4.65 · IMPLIED 21.5% EV +2.8%

Nantes (A) 15.2%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +6.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rennes face Nantes in France - Ligue 1 on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rennes a 63% chance, the draw 22% and Nantes 15%, so Rennes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Rennes and 0.7 for Nantes (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rennes are averaging 1.87 points per game versus 0.73 for Nantes. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +6.4%. This match finished 2-1.

Rennes vs Nantes Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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