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Paris FC vs Lille Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Matchday 31 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 15:15

Paris FC

PPG 1.36 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWLW

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Lille

PPG 1.73 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 56% chance

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 59.0% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-17.2%0-26.5%0-34.0%0-4+2.7%1 1-05.6%1-110.2%1-29.2%1-35.6%1-4+3.8%2 2-04.0%2-17.2%2-26.5%2-33.9%2-4+2.7%3 3-01.9%3-13.4%3-23.1%3-31.8%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.6%4+-21.5%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.3% 26.3% 3.80 +30.3%

Draw 28.2% 28.2% 3.55 +0.1%

Away win 37.5% 52.6% 1.90 -28.7%

Over 2.5 59.0% 54.6% 1.83 +8.0%

Over 3.5 40.2% 32.3% 3.10 +24.6%

BTTS 58.5% 58.8% 1.70 -0.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -13.2%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob58.5%

D 28% / xG 1.4-1.8 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 1–2 9.2%

#3 2–1 7.2%

#4 0–2 6.5%

#5 2–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Paris FC1.4

Lille1.8

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

PARIS FC · PPG 1.36

LILLE · PPG 1.73

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

Chance this pick lands

56%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.36) vs Away GOOD (1.73)

Win probability 1X2

Paris FC (H) 34.3%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +30.3%

Draw 28.2%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +0.1%

Lille (A) 37.5%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -28.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Paris FC face Lille in France - Ligue 1 on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Paris FC a 34% chance, the draw 28% and Lille 38%, so Lille are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Paris FC and 1.8 for Lille (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Paris FC are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 1.73 for Lille. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +30.3%. This match finished 0-1.

Paris FC vs Lille Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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