Paris FC vs Lille Prediction— France - Ligue 1

France - Ligue 1 Regular Season - 31 Stade Jean Bouin· Paris Sunday, April 26, 2026 15:15

Paris FC PPG 1.36

0-1 MISS

Lille PPG 1.73

Home· +30.3% ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Paris FC face Lille in France - Ligue 1 on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Paris FC a 34% chance, the draw 28% and Lille 38%, so Lille are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Paris FC and 1.8 for Lille (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Paris FC are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 1.73 for Lille. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +30.3%. This match finished 0-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 34.3%

Odds: 3.80 EV: +30.3%

Draw 28.2%

Odds: 3.55 EV: +0.1%

Away 37.5%

Odds: 1.90 EV: -28.7%

Model lean: Over 2.5

Result: Away ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 59.0% Odds: 1.83 +8.0%

Over 3.5 40.2% Odds: 3.10 +24.6%

BTTS 58.5% Odds: 1.70 -0.5%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-2 ✘

3rd 2-1 ✘

4th 0-2 ✘

5th 2-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Paris FC

1.41

Lille

1.81

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 +8.0% ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market: Over 2.5. 
Raw EV leader: Home(+30.3%)

League Track Record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5/Under 62%

BTTS/No 55%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -18.0%

Bet Hit 50% (16 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.36) vs Away GOOD (1.73)