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Le Havre vs Metz Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Regular Season - 31 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 15:15

Le Havre

PPG 1.47 · HOME

4 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Metz

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.5 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 50.0% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-15.8%0-22.1%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.3%1-110.5%1-23.9%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.8%2-19.4%2-23.5%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.7%3-15.7%3-22.1%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.2%4+-13.8%4+-21.4%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.7% 63.7% 1.57 -22.0%

Draw 28.5% 26.0% 3.85 +9.7%

Away win 21.8% 17.2% 5.80 +26.4%

Over 2.5 50.0% 54.1% 1.85 -7.5%

Over 3.5 25.0% 32.3% 3.10 -22.5%

BTTS 50.0% 54.1% 1.85 -7.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -5.5%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-4

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob50.0%

H 50% / xG 1.8-0.7 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.8%

#2 1–0 14.3%

#3 1–1 10.5%

#4 0–0 7.9%

#5 2–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Le Havre1.8

Metz0.7

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 25.0%

Form & verdict PPG

LE HAVRE · PPG 1.47

METZ · PPG 0.33

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.47) vs P(Home)=49.7%

Win probability 1X2

Le Havre (H) 49.7%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -22.0%

Draw 28.5%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +9.7%

Metz (A) 21.8%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV +26.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Le Havre face Metz in France - Ligue 1 on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Le Havre a 50% chance, the draw 28% and Metz 22%, so Le Havre are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Le Havre and 0.7 for Metz (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Le Havre are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 0.33 for Metz. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +26.4%. This match finished 4-4.

Le Havre vs Metz Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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