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Csakvari vs Kozarmisleny Prediction— Hungary - NB II

Regular Season - 27 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 15:00

Csakvari

PPG 1.69 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Kozarmisleny

PPG 1.23 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.0% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-14.3%0-22.2%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-08.9%1-19.2%1-24.8%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.6%2-19.9%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.8%3-17.1%3-23.7%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-06.0%4+-16.2%4+-23.2%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.2% 51.3% 1.95 -2.1%

Draw 27.7% 30.3% 3.30 -8.6%

Away win 22.0% 30.3% 3.30 -27.4%

Over 2.5 59.0% 57.8% 1.73 +2.1%

Over 3.5 39.3% — — —

BTTS 58.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -29.1%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob58.5%

H 50% / xG 2.1-1.0 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.2%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.6%

#4 1–0 8.9%

#5 3–1 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Csakvari2.1

Kozarmisleny1.0

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

CSAKVARI · PPG 1.69

KOZARMISLENY · PPG 1.23

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.69) > Away AVERAGE (1.23)

Win probability 1X2

Csakvari (H) 50.2%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -2.1%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -8.6%

Kozarmisleny (A) 22.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -27.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Csakvari face Kozarmisleny in Hungary - NB II on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Csakvari a 50% chance, the draw 28% and Kozarmisleny 22%, so Csakvari are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Csakvari and 1.0 for Kozarmisleny (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Csakvari are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 1.23 for Kozarmisleny. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +2.1%. This match finished 0-2.

Csakvari vs Kozarmisleny Prediction— Hungary - NB II

Match Preview & Prediction

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