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Friedberg vs Hunfelder SV Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Hessen

Hessen - 29 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 15:00

Friedberg

PPG 1.79 · HOME

3 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Hunfelder SV

PPG 1.79 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-14.8%0-25.7%0-34.4%0-4+4.5%1 1-03.2%1-17.4%1-28.7%1-36.8%1-4+6.9%2 2-02.4%2-15.7%2-26.7%2-35.2%2-4+5.3%3 3-01.2%3-12.9%3-23.4%3-32.7%3-4+2.7%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.6%4+-21.9%4+-31.5%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.9% — — —

Draw 24.3% — — —

Away win 47.8% — — —

Over 2.5 60.5% — — —

Over 3.5 54.4% — — —

BTTS 58.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 74%

Score Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-4

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob58.5%

A 48% / xG 1.5-2.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.7%

#2 1–1 7.4%

#3 1–3 6.8%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 2–1 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Friedberg1.5

Hunfelder SV2.3

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.5% · O3.5 PROB 54.4%

Form & verdict PPG

FRIEDBERG · PPG 1.79

HUNFELDER SV · PPG 1.79

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.79), Away GOOD (1.79)

Win probability 1X2

Friedberg (H) 27.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Hunfelder SV (A) 47.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Friedberg face Hunfelder SV in Germany - Oberliga - Hessen on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Friedberg a 28% chance, the draw 24% and Hunfelder SV 48%, so Hunfelder SV are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Friedberg and 2.3 for Hunfelder SV (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Friedberg are averaging 1.79 points per game versus 1.79 for Hunfelder SV. This match finished 3-4.

Friedberg vs Hunfelder SV Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Hessen

Match Preview & Prediction

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