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PEC Zwolle W vs Excelsior W Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie Women

Regular Season - 19 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 14:45

PEC Zwolle W

PPG 1.44 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Excelsior W

PPG 0.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.44) vs P(Home)=59.2%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-13.6%0-21.5%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.8%1-18.3%1-23.5%1-31.0%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.3%2-19.6%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.7%3-17.4%3-23.1%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-08.7%4+-17.4%4+-23.1%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.2% — — —

Draw 24.4% — — —

Away win 16.4% — — —

Over 2.5 59.0% — — —

Over 3.5 38.9% — — —

BTTS 56.9% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 76%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob56.9%

H 59% / xG 2.3-0.8 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.3%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 1–1 8.3%

#4 3–0 8.7%

#5 1–0 9.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

PEC Zwolle W2.3

Excelsior W0.8

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 38.9%

Form & verdict PPG

PEC ZWOLLE W · PPG 1.44

EXCELSIOR W · PPG 0.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.44) vs P(Home)=59.2%

Win probability 1X2

PEC Zwolle W (H) 59.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Excelsior W (A) 16.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

PEC Zwolle W face Excelsior W in Netherlands - Eredivisie Women on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives PEC Zwolle W a 59% chance, the draw 24% and Excelsior W 16%, so PEC Zwolle W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for PEC Zwolle W and 0.8 for Excelsior W (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, PEC Zwolle W are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 0.44 for Excelsior W. This match finished 4-1.

PEC Zwolle W vs Excelsior W Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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