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Heerenveen W vs PSV Eindhoven W Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie Women

Regular Season - 19 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 14:45

Heerenveen W

PPG 1.67 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

PSV Eindhoven W

PPG 2.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.5%0-12.3%0-25.0%0-37.4%0-4+26.7%1 1-00.5%1-12.0%1-24.4%1-36.4%1-4+23.2%2 2-00.2%2-10.9%2-21.9%2-32.8%2-4+10.1%3 3-00.1%3-10.3%3-20.6%3-30.8%3-4+2.9%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 4.5% — — —

Draw 20.0% — — —

Away win 75.5% — — —

Over 2.5 79.5% — — —

Over 3.5 76.8% — — —

BTTS 58.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 76%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 77%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)4.4 BTTS prob58.5%

A 76% / xG 0.9-4.4 / O2.5 80% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–4 8.0%

#2 0–3 7.4%

#3 0–5 7.0%

#4 1–4 7.0%

#5 1–3 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Heerenveen W0.9

PSV Eindhoven W4.4

COMBINED 5.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.5% · O3.5 PROB 76.8%

Form & verdict PPG

HEERENVEEN W · PPG 1.67

PSV EINDHOVEN W · PPG 2.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.38) vs Home GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

Heerenveen W (H) 4.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

PSV Eindhoven W (A) 75.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Heerenveen W face PSV Eindhoven W in Netherlands - Eredivisie Women on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Heerenveen W a 5% chance, the draw 20% and PSV Eindhoven W 76%, so PSV Eindhoven W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Heerenveen W and 4.4 for PSV Eindhoven W (5.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-4. There is a 80% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Heerenveen W are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 2.38 for PSV Eindhoven W. This match finished 0-1.

Heerenveen W vs PSV Eindhoven W Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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