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AZ W vs ADO Den Haag W Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie Women

Regular Season - 19 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 14:45

AZ W

PPG 0.75 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

ADO Den Haag W

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.8%0-12.7%0-21.9%0-30.9%0-4+0.5%1 1-04.7%1-16.8%1-24.9%1-32.3%1-4+1.2%2 2-06.0%2-18.7%2-26.2%2-33.0%2-4+1.5%3 3-05.1%3-17.4%3-25.3%3-32.5%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-06.0%4+-18.6%4+-26.2%4+-33.0%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.3% — — —

Draw 24.3% — — —

Away win 25.4% — — —

Over 2.5 61.2% — — —

Over 3.5 56.5% — — —

BTTS 58.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 76%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob58.5%

H 50% / xG 2.6-1.4 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.7%

#2 1–1✓ 6.8%

#3 3–1 7.4%

#4 2–2 6.2%

#5 2–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AZ W2.6

ADO Den Haag W1.4

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 56.5%

Form & verdict PPG

AZ W · PPG 0.75

ADO DEN HAAG W · PPG 1.11

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.75) vs Away AVERAGE (1.11)

Win probability 1X2

AZ W (H) 50.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

ADO Den Haag W (A) 25.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

AZ W face ADO Den Haag W in Netherlands - Eredivisie Women on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AZ W a 50% chance, the draw 24% and ADO Den Haag W 25%, so AZ W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for AZ W and 1.4 for ADO Den Haag W (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AZ W are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 1.11 for ADO Den Haag W. This match finished 1-1.

AZ W vs ADO Den Haag W Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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