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Neuchatel Xamax vs Bellinzona Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Regular Season - 32 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 14:30

Neuchatel Xamax

PPG 1.67 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Bellinzona

PPG 0.27 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 60.5% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-13.5%0-21.9%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-07.6%1-18.2%1-24.4%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.0%2-19.7%2-25.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-07.0%3-17.6%3-24.1%3-31.5%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-07.2%4+-17.8%4+-24.2%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.0% 57.8% 1.73 -3.1%

Draw 23.1% 26.0% 3.85 -11.1%

Away win 20.9% 26.0% 3.85 -19.5%

Over 2.5 60.5% 63.7% 1.57 -5.0%

Over 3.5 44.9% 41.7% 2.40 +7.8%

BTTS 58.5% 65.4% 1.53 -10.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 93%

BTTS 79%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 38.5%

Bet Hit 92%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob58.5%

H 56% / xG 2.4-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1✓ 9.7%

#2 1–1 8.2%

#3 2–0 9.0%

#4 3–1 7.6%

#5 3–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Neuchatel Xamax2.4

Bellinzona1.1

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.5% · O3.5 PROB 44.9%

Form & verdict PPG

NEUCHATEL XAMAX · PPG 1.67

BELLINZONA · PPG 0.27

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.67) vs P(Home)=56.0%

Win probability 1X2

Neuchatel Xamax (H) 56.0%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -3.1%

Draw 23.1%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -11.1%

Bellinzona (A) 20.9%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -19.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Neuchatel Xamax face Bellinzona in Switzerland - Challenge League on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Neuchatel Xamax a 56% chance, the draw 23% and Bellinzona 21%, so Neuchatel Xamax are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Neuchatel Xamax and 1.1 for Bellinzona (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Neuchatel Xamax are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.27 for Bellinzona. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +7.8%. This match finished 2-1.

Neuchatel Xamax vs Bellinzona Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Match Preview & Prediction

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