RW Essen vs Saarbrucken Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Germany - 3. Liga Regular Season - 35 Stadion an der Hafenstrasse· Essen Sunday, April 26, 2026 14:30

RW Essen PPG 2.18

1-2 MISS

Saarbrucken PPG 0.59

Over3.5· +18.4% ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

80% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

RW Essen face Saarbrucken in Germany - 3. Liga on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives RW Essen a 50% chance, the draw 24% and Saarbrucken 25%, so RW Essen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for RW Essen and 1.3 for Saarbrucken (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, RW Essen are averaging 2.18 points per game versus 0.59 for Saarbrucken. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +18.4%. This match finished 1-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 50.3%

Odds: 1.83 EV: -8.0%

Draw 24.3%

Odds: 3.85 EV: -6.5%

Away 25.4%

Odds: 3.80 EV: -3.5%

Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 60.5% Odds: 1.55 -6.2%

Over 3.5 50.4% Odds: 2.35 +18.4%

BTTS 58.5% Odds: 1.48 -13.4%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-1 ✘

2nd 1-1 ✘

3rd 3-1 ✘

4th 2-0 ✘

5th 2-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

RW Essen

2.38

Saarbrucken

1.32

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 -6.2% EXCLUDED FROM ROI
ROI tracking: excluded — EV is negative (-6.2%), so the model expects this bet to lose money at the offered odds.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5/Under 70%

BTTS/No 65%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 12.3%

Bet Hit 67% (12 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.18) vs P(Home)=50.3%