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Pesch vs Wegberg-Beeck Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Mittelrhein

Mittelrhein - 24 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:45

Pesch

PPG 0.55 · HOME

UPCOMING

Wegberg-Beeck

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 3.5

Combined xG of 7.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.1%0-10.5%0-21.7%0-33.5%0-4+39.2%1 1-00.1%1-10.4%1-21.4%1-32.8%1-4+31.2%2 2-00.0%2-10.2%2-20.5%2-31.1%2-4+12.4%3 3-00.0%3-10.0%3-20.1%3-30.3%3-4+3.3%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.0%4+-20.0%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 2.3% — — —

Draw 7.3% — — —

Away win 90.4% — — —

Over 2.5 79.5% — — —

Over 3.5 92.0% — — —

BTTS 57.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 63%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)6.2 BTTS prob57.8%

A 90% / xG 0.8-6.2 / O2.5 80% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–5 6.9%

#2 0–4 5.5%

#3 1–5 5.5%

#4 1–4 4.4%

#5 0–3 3.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pesch0.8

Wegberg-Beeck6.2

COMBINED 7.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.5% · O3.5 PROB 92.0%

Form & verdict PPG

PESCH · PPG 0.55

WEGBERG-BEECK · PPG 1.36

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.36) vs Home POOR (0.55)

Win probability 1X2

Pesch (H) 2.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 7.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Wegberg-Beeck (A) 90.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Pesch face Wegberg-Beeck in Germany - Oberliga - Mittelrhein on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pesch a 2% chance, the draw 7% and Wegberg-Beeck 90%, so Wegberg-Beeck are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Pesch and 6.2 for Wegberg-Beeck (7.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-5. There is a 80% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pesch are averaging 0.55 points per game versus 1.36 for Wegberg-Beeck.

Pesch vs Wegberg-Beeck Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Mittelrhein

Match Preview & Prediction

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