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Central Espanol vs Cerro Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Apertura - 13 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Central Espanol

PPG 1.40 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Cerro

PPG 0.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 59.2% vs bookmaker-implied 48.1% — a clear edge.

+23.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-14.3%0-21.3%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-014.8%1-18.7%1-22.6%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.0%2-18.8%2-22.6%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.2%3-16.0%3-21.8%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-08.2%4+-14.8%4+-21.4%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.2% 48.1% 2.08 +23.1%

Draw 24.4% 32.3% 3.10 -24.4%

Away win 16.4% 28.6% 3.50 -42.6%

Over 2.5 50.5% 42.6% 2.35 +18.7%

Over 3.5 26.7% 22.2% 4.50 +20.2%

BTTS 49.5% 51.3% 1.95 -3.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 7.4%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob49.5%

H 59% / xG 2.0-0.6 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 15.0%

#2 1–0 14.8%

#3 3–0 10.2%

#4 1–1 8.7%

#5 2–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Central Espanol2.0

Cerro0.6

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 26.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CENTRAL ESPANOL · PPG 1.40

CERRO · PPG 0.20

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.40) vs P(Home)=59.2%

Win probability 1X2

Central Espanol (H) 59.2%

ODDS 2.08 · IMPLIED 48.1% EV +23.1%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -24.4%

Cerro (A) 16.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -42.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Central Espanol face Cerro in Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Central Espanol a 59% chance, the draw 24% and Cerro 16%, so Central Espanol are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Central Espanol and 0.6 for Cerro (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Central Espanol are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.20 for Cerro. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +23.1%. This match finished 3-1.

Central Espanol vs Cerro Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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