Central Espanol vs Cerro Prediction & Tips

Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura Apertura - 13 Parque Palermo· Montevideo Sunday, April 26, 2026 13:00

Central Espanol PPG 1.40

3-1 MISS

Cerro PPG 0.20

Home· +23.1% 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95% confidence

Home 59.2%

Odds: 2.08 EV: +23.1%

Draw 24.4%

Odds: 3.10 EV: -24.4%

Away 16.4%

Odds: 3.50 EV: -42.6%

Model lean: Home

Result: Home ✔

Over 2.5 50.5% Odds: 2.35 +18.7%

Over 3.5 26.7% Odds: 4.50 +20.2%

BTTS 49.5% Odds: 1.95 -3.5%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS NO → YES ✘

1st 2-0 ✘

2nd 1-0 ✘

3rd 3-0 ✘

4th 1-1 ✘

5th 2-1 ✘

Central Espanol

2.03

Cerro

0.59

Model SuggestionHome +23.1% ROI TRACKS: Home
Tracked ROI market: Home. 

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.40) vs P(Home)=59.2%