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Regensburg vs Alemannia A. Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Matchday 34 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 17:00

Regensburg

PPG 1.69 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWLL

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Alemannia A.

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 63% chance

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-17.3%0-27.1%0-34.6%0-4+3.5%1 1-05.0%1-19.7%1-29.5%1-36.2%1-4+4.7%2 2-03.3%2-16.5%2-26.4%2-34.1%2-4+3.2%3 3-01.5%3-12.9%3-22.8%3-31.8%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.3%4+-21.3%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.2% 36.4% 2.75 -28.0%

Draw 22.0% 27.8% 3.60 -20.8%

Away win 51.8% 42.9% 2.33 +20.7%

Over 2.5 63.9% 62.5% 1.60 +2.2%

Over 3.5 41.8% 40.0% 2.50 +4.5%

BTTS 63.3% 67.6% 1.48 -6.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 16.0%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 53%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob63.3%

A 52% / xG 1.3-2.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 1–2 9.5%

#3 0–1 7.3%

#4 0–2 7.1%

#5 2–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Regensburg1.3

Alemannia A.2.0

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 41.8%

Form & verdict PPG

REGENSBURG · PPG 1.69

ALEMANNIA A. · PPG 1.71

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

63%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.69), Away GOOD (1.71)

Win probability 1X2

Regensburg (H) 26.2%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -28.0%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -20.8%

Alemannia A. (A) 51.8%

ODDS 2.33 · IMPLIED 42.9% EV +20.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Regensburg face Alemannia A. in Germany - 3. Liga on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Regensburg a 26% chance, the draw 22% and Alemannia A. 52%, so Alemannia A. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Regensburg and 2.0 for Alemannia A. (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Regensburg are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 1.71 for Alemannia A.. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +20.7%. This match finished 1-3.

Regensburg vs Alemannia A. Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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