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Baroka vs Kruger United Prediction— South-Africa - 1st Division

Regular Season - 27 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Baroka

PPG 1.15 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Kruger United

PPG 1.62 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.15) vs Away GOOD (1.62)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-18.9%0-26.2%0-32.9%0-4+1.4%1 1-08.7%1-112.1%1-28.4%1-33.9%1-4+1.9%2 2-05.9%2-18.2%2-25.7%2-32.7%2-4+1.3%3 3-02.7%3-13.7%3-22.6%3-31.2%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.7%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.1% 28.6% 3.50 +29.8%

Draw 30.0% 31.3% 3.20 -4.0%

Away win 32.8% 51.3% 1.95 -36.0%

Over 2.5 51.6% 45.5% 2.20 +13.5%

Over 3.5 29.7% — — —

BTTS 58.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 19.5%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob58.5%

D 30% / xG 1.4-1.4 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–2 8.4%

#3 0–0 6.4%

#4 2–1 8.2%

#5 0–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Baroka1.4

Kruger United1.4

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.6% · O3.5 PROB 29.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BAROKA · PPG 1.15

KRUGER UNITED · PPG 1.62

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.15) vs Away GOOD (1.62)

Win probability 1X2

Baroka (H) 37.1%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +29.8%

Draw 30.0%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -4.0%

Kruger United (A) 32.8%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -36.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Baroka face Kruger United in South-Africa - 1st Division on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Baroka a 37% chance, the draw 30% and Kruger United 33%, so Baroka are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Baroka and 1.4 for Kruger United (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Baroka are averaging 1.15 points per game versus 1.62 for Kruger United. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +29.8%. This match finished 0-3.

Baroka vs Kruger United Prediction— South-Africa - 1st Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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