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Orlando Pirates vs Kaizer Chiefs Prediction— South-Africa - Premier Soccer League

Regular Season - 26 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Orlando Pirates

PPG 2.38 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Kaizer Chiefs

PPG 2.10 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.38), Away EXCELLENT (2.10)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.3%0-15.5%0-20.9%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-024.8%1-17.9%1-21.3%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-017.8%2-15.7%2-20.9%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-08.5%3-12.7%3-20.4%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-11.3%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.2% — — —

Draw 28.5% — — —

Away win 13.3% — — —

Over 2.5 38.0% — — —

Over 3.5 10.2% — — —

BTTS 39.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -23.2%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.3 BTTS prob39.6%

H 58% / xG 1.4-0.3 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 24.8%

#2 0–0 17.3%

#3 2–0 17.8%

#4 1–1✓ 7.9%

#5 3–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Orlando Pirates1.4

Kaizer Chiefs0.3

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.0% · O3.5 PROB 10.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ORLANDO PIRATES · PPG 2.38

KAIZER CHIEFS · PPG 2.10

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.38), Away EXCELLENT (2.10)

Win probability 1X2

Orlando Pirates (H) 58.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Kaizer Chiefs (A) 13.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Orlando Pirates face Kaizer Chiefs in South-Africa - Premier Soccer League on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Orlando Pirates a 58% chance, the draw 28% and Kaizer Chiefs 13%, so Orlando Pirates are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Orlando Pirates and 0.3 for Kaizer Chiefs (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Orlando Pirates are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 2.10 for Kaizer Chiefs. This match finished 1-1.

Orlando Pirates vs Kaizer Chiefs Prediction— South-Africa - Premier Soccer League

Match Preview & Prediction

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