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Chippa Utd vs Golden Arrows Prediction— South-Africa - Premier Soccer League

Matchday 29 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 13:00

Chippa Utd

PPG 1.21 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDLW

0 – 2

FULL TIME

Golden Arrows

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDWD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.6%0-113.5%0-27.8%0-33.0%0-4+1.1%1 1-011.5%1-113.4%1-27.8%1-33.0%1-4+1.1%2 2-05.7%2-16.6%2-23.8%2-31.5%2-4+0.6%3 3-01.9%3-12.2%3-21.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.7%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.1% 50.0% 2.00 -33.8%

Draw 29.5% 32.3% 3.10 -5.1%

Away win 37.4% 27.0% 3.70 +38.4%

Over 2.5 46.2% 46.5% 2.15 -0.7%

Over 3.5 17.1% 25.0% 4.00 -19.0%

BTTS 49.2% 52.4% 1.91 -6.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 63%

ROI -1.2%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob49.2%

D 30% / xG 1.0-1.2 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 11.6%

#3 0–1 13.5%

#4 1–0 11.5%

#5 0–2✓ 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chippa Utd1.0

Golden Arrows1.2

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 17.1%

Form & verdict PPG

CHIPPA UTD · PPG 1.21

GOLDEN ARROWS · PPG 0.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

49%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.21) > Away POOR (0.86)

Win probability 1X2

Chippa Utd (H) 33.1%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -33.8%

Draw 29.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -5.1%

Golden Arrows (A) 37.4%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +38.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chippa Utd face Golden Arrows in South-Africa - Premier Soccer League on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chippa Utd a 33% chance, the draw 30% and Golden Arrows 37%, so Golden Arrows are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Chippa Utd and 1.2 for Golden Arrows (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chippa Utd are averaging 1.21 points per game versus 0.86 for Golden Arrows. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +38.4%. This match finished 0-2.

Chippa Utd vs Golden Arrows Prediction— South-Africa - Premier Soccer League

Match Preview & Prediction

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