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Orlando Pirates vs Durban City Prediction— South-Africa - Premier Soccer League

Regular Season - 29 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 13:00

Orlando Pirates

PPG 2.29 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Durban City

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 56.4% vs bookmaker-implied 84.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.3%0-16.3%0-21.3%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-022.3%1-19.3%1-21.9%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.4%2-16.8%2-21.4%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-08.0%3-13.3%3-20.7%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-11.7%4+-20.3%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.4% 84.7% 1.18 -33.5%

Draw 27.8% 17.2% 5.80 +36.7%

Away win 15.9% 5.3% 19.00 +121.3%

Over 2.5 35.0% 55.6% 1.80 -37.0%

Over 3.5 12.2% 33.3% 3.00 -38.0%

BTTS 44.1% 36.4% 2.75 +21.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -23.2%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob44.1%

H 56% / xG 1.5-0.4 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 22.3%

#2 0–0✓ 15.3%

#3 2–0 16.4%

#4 1–1 9.3%

#5 3–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Orlando Pirates1.5

Durban City0.4

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 12.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ORLANDO PIRATES · PPG 2.29

DURBAN CITY · PPG 0.93

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.29) vs P(Home)=56.4%

Win probability 1X2

Orlando Pirates (H) 56.4%

ODDS 1.18 · IMPLIED 84.7% EV -33.5%

Draw 27.8%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV +36.7%

Durban City (A) 15.9%

ODDS 19.00 · IMPLIED 5.3% EV +121.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Orlando Pirates face Durban City in South-Africa - Premier Soccer League on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Orlando Pirates a 56% chance, the draw 28% and Durban City 16%, so Orlando Pirates are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Orlando Pirates and 0.4 for Durban City (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Orlando Pirates are averaging 2.29 points per game versus 0.93 for Durban City. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +121.3%. This match finished 0-0.

Orlando Pirates vs Durban City Prediction— South-Africa - Premier Soccer League

Match Preview & Prediction

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