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Durban City vs AmaZulu Prediction— South-Africa - Premier Soccer League

Regular Season - 30 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 13:00

Durban City

PPG 1.79 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

AmaZulu

PPG 1.21 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-022.8%0-115.1%0-25.0%0-31.1%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.6%1-112.3%1-24.1%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-07.6%2-15.0%2-21.7%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.1%3-11.4%3-20.5%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.3%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.0% 45.0% 2.22 -22.3%

Draw 40.8% 32.8% 3.05 +24.4%

Away win 24.1% 29.0% 3.45 -10.1%

Over 2.5 25.8% 40.8% 2.45 -22.1%

Over 3.5 6.3% 21.1% 4.75 -42.0%

BTTS 46.2% 50.0% 2.00 -7.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -23.2%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob46.2%

H 35% / xG 0.8-0.7 / U2.5 26% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 22.8%

#2 1–0 18.6%

#3 1–1 12.3%

#4 0–1✓ 15.1%

#5 2–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Durban City0.8

AmaZulu0.7

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 25.8% · O3.5 PROB 6.3%

Form & verdict PPG

DURBAN CITY · PPG 1.79

AMAZULU · PPG 1.21

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.79) > Away AVERAGE (1.21)

Win probability 1X2

Durban City (H) 35.0%

ODDS 2.22 · IMPLIED 45.0% EV -22.3%

Draw 40.8%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV +24.4%

AmaZulu (A) 24.1%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -10.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Durban City face AmaZulu in South-Africa - Premier Soccer League on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Durban City a 35% chance, the draw 41% and AmaZulu 24%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.8 for Durban City and 0.7 for AmaZulu (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 26% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Durban City are averaging 1.79 points per game versus 1.21 for AmaZulu. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +24.4%. This match finished 0-1.

Durban City vs AmaZulu Prediction— South-Africa - Premier Soccer League

Match Preview & Prediction

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