Today / Velden vs Ried B

Velden vs Ried B Prediction

Mitte - 23 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 17:00

Velden logo
Velden
PPG 1.70 · HOME
3 – 2
FULL TIME
✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5
Ried B logo
Ried B
PPG 0.45 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-14.0%0-22.9%0-31.4%0-4+0.7%1 1-06.0%1-18.6%1-26.2%1-33.0%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.4%2-19.2%2-26.6%2-33.2%2-4+1.6%3 3-04.6%3-16.5%3-24.7%3-32.3%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-15.7%4+-24.1%4+-32.0%4+-4+1.0%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 53.5%
Draw 20.8%
Away win 25.7%
Over 2.5 69.2%
Over 3.5 47.9%
BTTS 67.2%
Home O1.5
Away O1.5

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 3-2
xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob67.2%

H 54% / xG 2.1-1.4 / O2.5 69% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.2%
#2 1–1 8.6%
#3 2–2 6.6%
#4 3–1 6.5%
#5 2–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Velden2.1
Ried B1.4

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.2% · O3.5 PROB 47.9%

Form & verdict PPG

VELDEN · PPG 1.70

RIED B · PPG 0.45

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value
55%
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.70) vs P(Home)=53.5%

Win probability 1X2

Velden (H) 53.5%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 20.8%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Ried B (A) 25.7%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Velden face Ried B on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Velden a 54% chance, the draw 21% and Ried B 26%, so Velden are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Velden and 1.4 for Ried B (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 69% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Velden are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 0.45 for Ried B. This match finished 3-2.

PredictVantage

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