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SSV Merten vs SF Duren Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Mittelrhein

Mittelrhein - 24 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 14:00

SSV Merten

PPG 2.18 · HOME

6 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

SF Duren

PPG 0.36 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.18), Away POOR (0.36) - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.9%0-10.9%0-20.5%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-03.4%1-13.4%1-21.7%1-30.6%1-4+0.2%2 2-06.2%2-16.3%2-23.2%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.6%3-17.7%3-23.9%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-018.1%4+-118.4%4+-29.3%4+-33.2%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 70.2% — — —

Draw 20.6% — — —

Away win 9.2% — — —

Over 2.5 68.1% — — —

Over 3.5 68.8% — — —

BTTS 58.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 72%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 6-0

xG (home)3.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob58.5%

H 70% / xG 3.7-1.0 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.7%

#2 3–0 7.6%

#3 4–1 7.1%

#4 4–0 7.0%

#5 2–1 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SSV Merten3.7

SF Duren1.0

COMBINED 4.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.1% · O3.5 PROB 68.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SSV MERTEN · PPG 2.18

SF DUREN · PPG 0.36

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.18), Away POOR (0.36) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

SSV Merten (H) 70.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

SF Duren (A) 9.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

SSV Merten face SF Duren in Germany - Oberliga - Mittelrhein on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SSV Merten a 70% chance, the draw 21% and SF Duren 9%, so SSV Merten are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.7 for SSV Merten and 1.0 for SF Duren (4.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SSV Merten are averaging 2.18 points per game versus 0.36 for SF Duren. This match finished 6-0.

SSV Merten vs SF Duren Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Mittelrhein

Match Preview & Prediction

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