Today / Germany - Oberliga - Mittelrhein / Duren vs Porz

Duren vs Porz Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Mittelrhein

Mittelrhein - 24 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Duren

PPG 1.64 · HOME

5 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Porz

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.5%0-11.6%0-22.3%0-32.3%0-4+3.6%1 1-01.2%1-13.6%1-25.3%1-35.3%1-4+8.1%2 2-01.4%2-14.0%2-26.0%2-36.0%2-4+9.2%3 3-01.0%3-13.1%3-24.5%3-34.5%3-4+7.0%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-13.0%4+-24.4%4+-34.3%4+-4+6.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.0% — — —

Draw 22.0% — — —

Away win 44.0% — — —

Over 2.5 79.5% — — —

Over 3.5 76.7% — — —

BTTS 65.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-2

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)3.0 BTTS prob65.5%

A 44% / xG 2.3-3.0 / O2.5 80% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 6.0%

#2 2–3 6.0%

#3 1–2 5.3%

#4 1–3 5.3%

#5 3–2 4.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Duren2.3

Porz3.0

COMBINED 5.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.5% · O3.5 PROB 76.7%

Form & verdict PPG

DUREN · PPG 1.64

PORZ · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.64) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Duren (H) 34.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Porz (A) 44.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Duren face Porz in Germany - Oberliga - Mittelrhein on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Duren a 34% chance, the draw 22% and Porz 44%, so Porz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Duren and 3.0 for Porz (5.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 80% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Duren are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.00 for Porz. This match finished 5-2.

Duren vs Porz Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Mittelrhein

Match Preview & Prediction

More Germany - Oberliga - Mittelrhein Predictions