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France - Ligue 1
Regular Season - 31
Stade du Moustoir· Lorient
Sunday, April 26, 2026
13:00
Lorient
PPG 2.00
2-3
MISS
Strasbourg
PPG 1.14
Over3.5· +18.7%
✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value
80% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Home
38.9%
Odds: 1.97
EV: -23.4%
Draw
30.6%
Odds: 3.70
EV: +13.2%
Away
30.5%
Odds: 3.45
EV: +5.2%
Model lean:
Over 2.5
Result: Away ✘
Goals Markets
Over 2.5
59.0%
Odds: 1.70
+0.3%
Over 3.5
42.4%
Odds: 2.80
+18.7%
BTTS
58.5%
Odds: 1.62
-5.2%
O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔
BTTS YES → YES ✔
Correct Score Picks
1st
1-1
✘
2nd
2-1
✘
3rd
1-2
✘
4th
2-2
✘
5th
2-0
✘
Expected Goals (xG)
Lorient
1.75
Strasbourg
1.57
Model Suggestion
Over 2.5
+0.3%
ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market:
Over 2.5.
Raw EV leader:
Over3.5(+18.7%)
League Track Record
↗
Based on 42 resolved predictions
1X2 Acc
41%
O2.5/Under
62%
BTTS/No
55%
Score Hit
36%
ROI
-18.0%
Bet Hit
50%
(16 bets)
Verdict & Form
✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value
80%
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME
Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=38.9%