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France - Ligue 1 logo France flag France - Ligue 1 Regular Season - 31 Stade du Moustoir· Lorient Sunday, April 26, 2026 13:00
Lorient logo Lorient PPG 2.00
2-3 MISS
Strasbourg logo Strasbourg PPG 1.14
Over3.5· +18.7% ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value
80% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 38.9%
Odds: 1.97 EV: -23.4%
Draw 30.6%
Odds: 3.70 EV: +13.2%
Away 30.5%
Odds: 3.45 EV: +5.2%
Model lean: Over 2.5
Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 59.0% Odds: 1.70 +0.3%
Over 3.5 42.4% Odds: 2.80 +18.7%
BTTS 58.5% Odds: 1.62 -5.2%
O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1
2nd 2-1
3rd 1-2
4th 2-2
5th 2-0

Expected Goals (xG)

Lorient
1.75
Strasbourg
1.57

Model Suggestion

Over 2.5 +0.3% ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market: Over 2.5.
Raw EV leader: Over3.5(+18.7%)

League Track Record

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%
O2.5/Under 62%
BTTS/No 55%
Score Hit 36%
ROI -18.0%
Bet Hit 50% (16 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value
80%
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=38.9%

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