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Lorient vs Strasbourg Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Matchday 31 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Lorient

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDWL

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Strasbourg

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 59% chance

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 59.0% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-15.7%0-24.5%0-32.3%0-4+1.3%1 1-06.3%1-19.9%1-27.8%1-34.1%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.5%2-18.7%2-26.8%2-33.6%2-4+2.0%3 3-03.2%3-15.1%3-24.0%3-32.1%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-13.3%4+-22.6%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.9% 50.8% 1.97 -23.4%

Draw 30.6% 27.0% 3.70 +13.2%

Away win 30.5% 29.0% 3.45 +5.2%

Over 2.5 59.0% 58.8% 1.70 +0.3%

Over 3.5 42.4% 35.7% 2.80 +18.7%

BTTS 58.5% 61.7% 1.62 -5.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -13.2%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob58.5%

D 31% / xG 1.7-1.6 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 1–2 7.8%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 2–0 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lorient1.7

Strasbourg1.6

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 42.4%

Form & verdict PPG

LORIENT · PPG 2.00

STRASBOURG · PPG 1.14

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

Chance this pick lands

59%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=38.9%

Win probability 1X2

Lorient (H) 38.9%

ODDS 1.97 · IMPLIED 50.8% EV -23.4%

Draw 30.6%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +13.2%

Strasbourg (A) 30.5%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +5.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lorient face Strasbourg in France - Ligue 1 on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lorient a 39% chance, the draw 31% and Strasbourg 31%, so Lorient are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Lorient and 1.6 for Strasbourg (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lorient are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.14 for Strasbourg. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +18.7%. This match finished 2-3.

Lorient vs Strasbourg Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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