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Widzew Lodz vs Motor Lublin Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Matchday 30 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 12:45

Widzew Lodz

PPG 1.57 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWLW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Motor Lublin

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 56% chance

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.0% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-16.4%0-23.7%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-09.9%1-111.2%1-26.3%1-32.4%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.5%2-19.7%2-25.5%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.9%3-15.6%3-23.2%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-13.6%4+-22.0%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.3% 55.2% 1.81 -16.2%

Draw 28.3% 27.8% 3.60 +1.9%

Away win 25.4% 23.8% 4.20 +6.7%

Over 2.5 59.0% 54.6% 1.83 +8.0%

Over 3.5 32.3% 32.3% 3.10 +0.1%

BTTS 58.5% 57.8% 1.73 +1.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -8.6%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob58.5%

H 46% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0✓ 8.5%

#4 1–0 9.9%

#5 0–0 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Widzew Lodz1.7

Motor Lublin1.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

WIDZEW LODZ · PPG 1.57

MOTOR LUBLIN · PPG 1.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

56%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.57) > Away AVERAGE (1.14)

Win probability 1X2

Widzew Lodz (H) 46.3%

ODDS 1.81 · IMPLIED 55.2% EV -16.2%

Draw 28.3%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +1.9%

Motor Lublin (A) 25.4%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +6.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Widzew Lodz face Motor Lublin in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Widzew Lodz a 46% chance, the draw 28% and Motor Lublin 25%, so Widzew Lodz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Widzew Lodz and 1.1 for Motor Lublin (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Widzew Lodz are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.14 for Motor Lublin. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +8.0%. This match finished 2-0.

Widzew Lodz vs Motor Lublin Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

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