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HSC 21 vs TEC Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday

Group A - 31 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 12:30

HSC 21

PPG 0.33 · HOME

3 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

TEC

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.0%0-13.4%0-25.9%0-36.6%0-4+13.5%1 1-01.2%1-14.1%1-27.0%1-37.9%1-4+16.0%2 2-00.7%2-12.4%2-24.1%2-34.7%2-4+9.5%3 3-00.3%3-11.0%3-21.6%3-31.9%3-4+3.8%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.4%4+-20.6%4+-30.7%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 15.0% — — —

Draw 21.5% — — —

Away win 63.5% — — —

Over 2.5 68.1% — — —

Over 3.5 67.4% — — —

BTTS 58.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -53.7%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-4

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)3.4 BTTS prob58.5%

A 64% / xG 1.2-3.4 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–3 7.9%

#2 1–2 7.0%

#3 1–4 6.7%

#4 0–3 6.6%

#5 0–2 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

HSC 211.2

TEC3.4

COMBINED 4.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.1% · O3.5 PROB 67.4%

Form & verdict PPG

HSC 21 · PPG 0.33

TEC · PPG 1.27

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.27) vs Home POOR (0.33)

Win probability 1X2

HSC 21 (H) 15.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

TEC (A) 63.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

HSC 21 face TEC in Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives HSC 21 a 15% chance, the draw 22% and TEC 64%, so TEC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for HSC 21 and 3.4 for TEC (4.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-3. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, HSC 21 are averaging 0.33 points per game versus 1.27 for TEC. This match finished 3-4.

HSC 21 vs TEC Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday

Match Preview & Prediction

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