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Lausanne Ouchy vs Yverdon Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Regular Season - 32 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 12:00

Lausanne Ouchy

PPG 1.33 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Yverdon

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 60.5% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-15.2%0-25.4%0-33.8%0-4+3.2%1 1-04.0%1-18.4%1-28.7%1-36.0%1-4+5.1%2 2-03.2%2-16.7%2-27.0%2-34.8%2-4+4.1%3 3-01.7%3-13.6%3-23.7%3-32.6%3-4+2.2%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-12.1%4+-22.1%4+-31.5%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.7% 44.4% 2.25 -24.2%

Draw 27.7% 27.8% 3.60 -0.3%

Away win 38.6% 38.2% 2.62 +1.1%

Over 2.5 60.5% 61.7% 1.62 -2.0%

Over 3.5 50.3% 38.5% 2.60 +30.8%

BTTS 58.5% 66.7% 1.50 -12.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 93%

BTTS 79%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 38.5%

Bet Hit 92%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob58.5%

A 39% / xG 1.6-2.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.4%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 2–2 7.0%

#4 2–1 6.7%

#5 1–3 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lausanne Ouchy1.6

Yverdon2.1

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.5% · O3.5 PROB 50.3%

Form & verdict PPG

LAUSANNE OUCHY · PPG 1.33

YVERDON · PPG 1.67

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.33) vs Away GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

Lausanne Ouchy (H) 33.7%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -24.2%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -0.3%

Yverdon (A) 38.6%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +1.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lausanne Ouchy face Yverdon in Switzerland - Challenge League on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lausanne Ouchy a 34% chance, the draw 28% and Yverdon 39%, so Yverdon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Lausanne Ouchy and 2.1 for Yverdon (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lausanne Ouchy are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.67 for Yverdon. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +30.8%. This match finished 0-3.

Lausanne Ouchy vs Yverdon Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Match Preview & Prediction

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