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Elversberg vs Karlsruher SC Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Matchday 30 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 16:30

Elversberg

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWLW

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Karlsruher SC

PPG 0.87 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 70% chance

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.1% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-14.7%0-22.8%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-07.9%1-19.6%1-25.8%1-32.3%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.1%2-19.8%2-25.9%2-32.4%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.5%3-16.7%3-24.0%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-15.5%4+-23.3%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.7% 69.4% 1.44 -18.4%

Draw 21.2% 20.8% 4.80 +1.8%

Away win 22.1% 16.7% 6.00 +32.6%

Over 2.5 63.1% 73.5% 1.36 -14.2%

Over 3.5 40.9% 51.8% 1.93 -21.1%

BTTS 61.0% 67.6% 1.48 -9.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -10.2%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.0%

H 57% / xG 2.0-1.2 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.8%

#2 1–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 8.1%

#4 1–0 7.9%

#5 3–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Elversberg2.0

Karlsruher SC1.2

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 40.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ELVERSBERG · PPG 2.00

KARLSRUHER SC · PPG 0.87

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

Chance this pick lands

70%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=56.7%

Win probability 1X2

Elversberg (H) 56.7%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -18.4%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +1.8%

Karlsruher SC (A) 22.1%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +32.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Elversberg face Karlsruher SC in Germany - 2. Bundesliga on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Elversberg a 57% chance, the draw 21% and Karlsruher SC 22%, so Elversberg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Elversberg and 1.2 for Karlsruher SC (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Elversberg are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.87 for Karlsruher SC. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +32.6%. This match finished 3-0.

Elversberg vs Karlsruher SC Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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