Today / Coburg vs Neudrossenfeld

Coburg vs Neudrossenfeld Prediction

Bayern Nord - 30 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 16:15

Coburg

PPG 1.08 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Neudrossenfeld

PPG 1.08 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-17.0%0-28.4%0-36.7%0-4+7.2%1 1-03.3%1-17.9%1-29.5%1-37.6%1-4+8.1%2 2-01.9%2-14.5%2-25.4%2-34.3%2-4+4.6%3 3-00.7%3-11.7%3-22.0%3-31.6%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.6%4+-20.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 16.3% — — —

Draw 18.1% — — —

Away win 65.5% — — —

Over 2.5 68.7% — — —

Over 3.5 47.3% — — —

BTTS 61.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 68%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob61.8%

A 66% / xG 1.1-2.4 / O2.5 69% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2✓ 9.5%

#2 0–2 8.4%

#3 1–1 7.9%

#4 1–3 7.6%

#5 0–1 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Coburg1.1

Neudrossenfeld2.4

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.7% · O3.5 PROB 47.3%

Form & verdict PPG

COBURG · PPG 1.08

NEUDROSSENFELD · PPG 1.08

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.08), Away AVERAGE (1.08)

Win probability 1X2

Coburg (H) 16.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 18.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Neudrossenfeld (A) 65.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Coburg face Neudrossenfeld on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Coburg a 16% chance, the draw 18% and Neudrossenfeld 66%, so Neudrossenfeld are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Coburg and 2.4 for Neudrossenfeld (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 69% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Coburg are averaging 1.08 points per game versus 1.08 for Neudrossenfeld. This match finished 1-2.

Coburg vs Neudrossenfeld Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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