Today / Germany - 3. Liga / Viktoria Koln vs Energie Cottbus

Viktoria Koln vs Energie Cottbus Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Matchday 35 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 11:30

Viktoria Koln

PPG 1.59 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWLD

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Energie Cottbus

PPG 1.63 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 62% chance

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 59.0% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-16.7%0-26.3%0-33.9%0-4+2.7%1 1-05.3%1-19.8%1-29.1%1-35.6%1-4+4.0%2 2-03.9%2-17.2%2-26.7%2-34.1%2-4+2.9%3 3-01.9%3-13.5%3-23.2%3-32.0%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.8%4+-21.6%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.3% 31.3% 3.20 +9.8%

Draw 28.2% 26.7% 3.75 +5.8%

Away win 37.5% 48.8% 2.05 -23.1%

Over 2.5 59.0% 63.7% 1.57 -7.4%

Over 3.5 42.3% 41.7% 2.40 +1.5%

BTTS 58.5% 67.6% 1.48 -13.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 16.0%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob58.5%

D 28% / xG 1.5-1.9 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 1–2 9.1%

#3 2–1 7.2%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 0–2✓ 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Viktoria Koln1.5

Energie Cottbus1.9

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 42.3%

Form & verdict PPG

VIKTORIA KOLN · PPG 1.59

ENERGIE COTTBUS · PPG 1.63

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

62%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.59), Away GOOD (1.63)

Win probability 1X2

Viktoria Koln (H) 34.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +9.8%

Draw 28.2%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +5.8%

Energie Cottbus (A) 37.5%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -23.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Viktoria Koln face Energie Cottbus in Germany - 3. Liga on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Viktoria Koln a 34% chance, the draw 28% and Energie Cottbus 38%, so Energie Cottbus are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Viktoria Koln and 1.9 for Energie Cottbus (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Viktoria Koln are averaging 1.59 points per game versus 1.63 for Energie Cottbus. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +9.8%. This match finished 0-2.

Viktoria Koln vs Energie Cottbus Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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