Today / Germany - 2. Bundesliga / Paderborn vs Schalke 04

Paderborn vs Schalke 04 Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Matchday 31 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 11:30

Paderborn

PPG 2.13 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWDW

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Schalke 04

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWLW

// Model verdict

BTTS 61% chance

Model probability 53.5% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-110.6%0-26.6%0-32.7%0-4+1.1%1 1-010.4%1-112.9%1-28.0%1-33.3%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.3%2-17.9%2-24.9%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.6%3-13.2%3-22.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.3%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.3% 42.9% 2.33 -15.4%

Draw 31.7% 30.8% 3.25 +3.0%

Away win 32.1% 33.3% 3.00 -3.7%

Over 2.5 50.0% 57.1% 1.75 -12.5%

Over 3.5 23.6% 36.4% 2.75 -35.1%

BTTS 53.5% 64.5% 1.55 -17.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -10.2%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob53.5%

D 32% / xG 1.2-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 8.5%

#3 0–1 10.6%

#4 1–0 10.4%

#5 1–2 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Paderborn1.2

Schalke 041.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 23.6%

Form & verdict PPG

PADERBORN · PPG 2.13

SCHALKE 04 · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

61%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.13) > Away GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

Paderborn (H) 36.3%

ODDS 2.33 · IMPLIED 42.9% EV -15.4%

Draw 31.7%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +3.0%

Schalke 04 (A) 32.1%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -3.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Paderborn face Schalke 04 in Germany - 2. Bundesliga on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Paderborn a 36% chance, the draw 32% and Schalke 04 32%, so Paderborn are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Paderborn and 1.2 for Schalke 04 (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Paderborn are averaging 2.13 points per game versus 1.67 for Schalke 04. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +3.0%. This match finished 2-3.

Paderborn vs Schalke 04 Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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