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FC Nurnberg vs Magdeburg Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Matchday 31 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 11:30

FC Nurnberg

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDWD

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Magdeburg

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 64% chance

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 60.5% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-14.7%0-23.6%0-31.8%0-4+1.0%1 1-06.0%1-19.2%1-27.0%1-33.6%1-4+1.9%2 2-05.9%2-19.0%2-26.8%2-33.5%2-4+1.9%3 3-03.8%3-15.9%3-24.5%3-32.3%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-14.5%4+-23.4%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.1% 41.7% 2.40 +8.2%

Draw 27.6% 27.8% 3.60 -0.6%

Away win 27.3% 37.7% 2.65 -27.7%

Over 2.5 60.5% 65.4% 1.53 -7.4%

Over 3.5 45.9% 43.5% 2.30 +5.6%

BTTS 58.5% 70.4% 1.42 -16.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -10.2%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob58.5%

H 45% / xG 2.0-1.5 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.2%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 1–2 7.0%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 2–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Nurnberg2.0

Magdeburg1.5

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.5% · O3.5 PROB 45.9%

Form & verdict PPG

FC NURNBERG · PPG 1.67

MAGDEBURG · PPG 1.27

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

64%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.67) > Away AVERAGE (1.27)

Win probability 1X2

FC Nurnberg (H) 45.1%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +8.2%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -0.6%

Magdeburg (A) 27.3%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -27.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Nurnberg face Magdeburg in Germany - 2. Bundesliga on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Nurnberg a 45% chance, the draw 28% and Magdeburg 27%, so FC Nurnberg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for FC Nurnberg and 1.5 for Magdeburg (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Nurnberg are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.27 for Magdeburg. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +8.2%. This match finished 1-0.

FC Nurnberg vs Magdeburg Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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