FC Nurnberg vs Magdeburg Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Germany - 2. Bundesliga Regular Season - 31 Max-Morlock-Stadion· Nuremberg Sunday, April 26, 2026 11:30

FC Nurnberg PPG 1.67

1-0 MISS

Magdeburg PPG 1.27

Home· +8.2% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Nurnberg face Magdeburg in Germany - 2. Bundesliga on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Nurnberg a 45% chance, the draw 28% and Magdeburg 27%, so FC Nurnberg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for FC Nurnberg and 1.5 for Magdeburg (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Nurnberg are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.27 for Magdeburg. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +8.2%. This match finished 1-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 45.1%

Odds: 2.40 EV: +8.2%

Draw 27.6%

Odds: 3.60 EV: -0.6%

Away 27.3%

Odds: 2.65 EV: -27.7%

Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 60.5% Odds: 1.53 -7.4%

Over 3.5 45.9% Odds: 2.30 +5.6%

BTTS 58.5% Odds: 1.42 -16.9%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 1-2 ✘

4th 2-2 ✘

5th 2-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

FC Nurnberg

1.96

Magdeburg

1.52

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 -7.4% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Over 2.5, but EV is -7.4% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Home (+8.2%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.67) > Away AVERAGE (1.27)