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Bochum vs Greuther Furth Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Matchday 31 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 11:30

Bochum

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDDW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Greuther Furth

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 63% chance

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 60.6% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-12.8%0-21.9%0-30.9%0-4+0.4%1 1-05.0%1-17.0%1-24.9%1-32.3%1-4+1.1%2 2-06.3%2-18.8%2-26.2%2-32.9%2-4+1.4%3 3-05.3%3-17.4%3-25.2%3-32.4%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-06.1%4+-18.6%4+-26.0%4+-32.8%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.3% 59.5% 1.68 -15.5%

Draw 24.3% 24.4% 4.10 -0.4%

Away win 25.4% 22.7% 4.40 +11.8%

Over 2.5 60.6% 64.5% 1.55 -6.1%

Over 3.5 55.3% 42.6% 2.35 +30.0%

BTTS 58.5% 65.4% 1.53 -10.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -10.2%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob58.5%

H 50% / xG 2.5-1.4 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1✓ 8.8%

#2 1–1 7.0%

#3 3–1 7.4%

#4 2–0 6.3%

#5 2–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bochum2.5

Greuther Furth1.4

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.6% · O3.5 PROB 55.3%

Form & verdict PPG

BOCHUM · PPG 1.67

GREUTHER FURTH · PPG 0.93

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

63%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.67) > Away POOR (0.93)

Win probability 1X2

Bochum (H) 50.3%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV -15.5%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -0.4%

Greuther Furth (A) 25.4%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +11.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bochum face Greuther Furth in Germany - 2. Bundesliga on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bochum a 50% chance, the draw 24% and Greuther Furth 25%, so Bochum are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Bochum and 1.4 for Greuther Furth (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bochum are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.93 for Greuther Furth. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +30.0%. This match finished 2-1.

Bochum vs Greuther Furth Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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