Today / England - FA WSL / Tottenham W vs Man Utd W

Tottenham W vs Man Utd W Prediction— England - FA WSL

Regular Season - 20 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 11:00

Tottenham W

PPG 1.78 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Man Utd W

PPG 2.22 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 60.9% vs bookmaker-implied 59.2% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-16.2%0-27.9%0-36.8%0-4+8.1%1 1-02.8%1-17.2%1-29.2%1-37.9%1-4+9.4%2 2-01.6%2-14.1%2-25.3%2-34.6%2-4+5.4%3 3-00.6%3-11.6%3-22.1%3-31.8%3-4+2.1%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.6%4+-20.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.6% 23.8% 4.20 -38.7%

Draw 24.5% 26.0% 3.85 -5.7%

Away win 60.9% 59.2% 1.69 +2.9%

Over 2.5 60.5% 61.7% 1.62 -2.0%

Over 3.5 51.2% 39.2% 2.55 +30.6%

BTTS 58.5% 63.7% 1.57 -8.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -1.3%

Bet Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)2.6 BTTS prob58.5%

A 61% / xG 1.2-2.6 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.2%

#2 1–1 7.2%

#3 0–2 7.9%

#4 1–3 7.9%

#5 0–3 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tottenham W1.2

Man Utd W2.6

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.5% · O3.5 PROB 51.2%

Form & verdict PPG

TOTTENHAM W · PPG 1.78

MAN UTD W · PPG 2.22

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.78) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.22)

Win probability 1X2

Tottenham W (H) 14.6%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -38.7%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -5.7%

Man Utd W (A) 60.9%

ODDS 1.69 · IMPLIED 59.2% EV +2.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tottenham W face Man Utd W in England - FA WSL on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tottenham W a 15% chance, the draw 25% and Man Utd W 61%, so Man Utd W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Tottenham W and 2.6 for Man Utd W (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tottenham W are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 2.22 for Man Utd W. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +30.6%. This match finished 0-0.

Tottenham W vs Man Utd W Prediction— England - FA WSL

Match Preview & Prediction

More England - FA WSL Predictions